On Iran's Election Protests

(two older entries from The Templar Archives; 17/06/2009 and 28/06/2009 respectively)

Wow. I'm amazed.

I didn't pay much attention to the election in Iran in the last couple of weeks, but as a "westerner," I was pro-Mousavi for obvious reasons. I was thinking "oh, nice" when I first read about him as a primary opponent of Ahmadinejad and I was disappointed with the election results, especially since several news sources and polls said that Mousavi had wider support. I thought to myself, "well, just another display of totalitarianism in an illiberal theocratic mock-democracy.

But then, there were the protests. I swear, all this protesting reminds me of the end of the Warsaw Pact. I wasn't born when it started, of course, but I've watched plenty of footage on Discovery Civilization or Viasat History. Up to now I never thought that I could see such display of civil activity in a Middle-East country, I thought that people there were as pessimistic about their government as are Bulgarians here, at home.

These protests are one piece of good news from the Middle-East. They are like Eastern Europe in 1989 or Paris 200 years earlier. They are a real display of democracy. I feel great that there are people out there who stand for their choice, if necessary - against the system. People like the "ten journalists" mentioned here, or like the Iranian football nationals who wore green, or like the numerous individuals who strive for their share of the Internet. It is something like seeing Solidarnost or a wall being torn down as once happened.

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Now*, two weeks after the religious regime in Iran said to its people something like "whereisyourvotenow lol" things are once again calmer. What will happen now?

To begin with, there is a mass of well-educated Iranians that still feel against Ahmadinejad who reside in the cities as the middle class. They expressed their disapproval once and although not rewarded, I think that the Ayatollah will be extremely careful with what he makes Ahmadinejad do, because any mistake will be a potential cause of protests and tremors within the foundations of this Islamic Republic.

What will become of Moussavi, I really have no guesses. Either he will yield, or he will keep objecting, obviously, but either ways he will end up as looking like he is weak: one time when he surrenders voluntarily and the other time when the current government forces him to recant his claims.

Also, the protests themselves... There was plenty of violence in their suppression by the government, and especially by the Basij - the militiamen who serve the Islamic Revolution. What this means is that the government and the Islamic Revolution will lose much legitimacy in the eyes of the protesters, that is - the urban middle class. Furthermore, I read about Ahmed Khatami (the cleric, not the progressive guy) denouncing protesters as enemies of God, or "mohareb." This is not only a disgusting example of religion serving somebody's political agenda, but also a possible source of discrediting Islam within Iranian society by aligning it with the current regime's oppressive measures. Which is good - perhaps after some more of such protests and such "measures" we may see Iran become a liberal democracy not unlike Turkey. If that happens, the Persian people will enter a period of prosperity, liberty, and peace.

*That is, Sunday, 28/06/2009